Midterm math: How both parties aim to defy the seat-loss curse

It is Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and the nation is casting ballots to determine who controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 of 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on the current administration, with voters struggling with high prices and anger over an unpopular war with Iran. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states.

Historically, the president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. This pattern creates a significant hurdle for Republicans, who currently hold a majority in both chambers. Ballotpedia notes that Democrats need a net gain of three House districts to take the majority, while Republicans can afford to lose no more than two. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control, whereas Republicans can lose only two. The stakes are high because if Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely.

Republicans have attempted to beat the midterm pattern through redistricting. Six states are using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting: California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Ohio also uses a new map. The AP notes that new districts in Florida and elsewhere may not vote as drawn, but the strategy aims to protect Republican incumbents. However, the AP reports that Republicans were bracing to lose the House while fighting to hold the Senate, with one or two seats potentially tipping either chamber.

Democrats, described by the AP as cautiously optimistic, are leveraging national anger at the administration. AP-NORC polling shows that 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, and about 7 in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Most blame him for high prices. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene stated, "The American people are angry. They want change." Democrats hope to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades, with 36 governorships up for election.

Money plays a pivotal role in this cycle, which the AP says will likely be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. An AP analysis of AdImpact data reveals that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, including more than $850 million in areas where he won by 10 points or more. This spending strategy reflects the Republican focus on defending their base in solidly Republican areas.

The mood in both parties is tense. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized the importance of turnout, saying, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." Trump held dozens of rallies, ending Sunday in Salina, Kansas, where he told supporters, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." His schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas, yet many Republican candidates kept their distance from the president during the final days of the campaign.

Voters are weighing their choices against a backdrop of economic strain. James Moore, 57, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, told the AP, "I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything." In contrast, Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said, "I've just been following Trump the whole time. I really think he's doing an awesome job." These sentiments reflect the divided national mood as polls remain open across the country.

Election administration has been a point of contention. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan it says would prevent noncitizen voting, citing concerns about disenfranchising eligible voters. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. Reuters notes that Wall Street is watching the results closely, as they could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations.

In key Senate battlegrounds, the race is tight. Ballotpedia lists 13 races, including Maine, which is a toss-up on all four major ratings. In Kansas, a reliably Republican state, the race has become central to the fight for Senate control. The AP notes that economic strain and tariffs have made states like Maine competitive. In North Carolina, Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running against Republican Rep. Mike Collins.

Governor races also offer a path to shifting power. Democrats defend five governorships in states Trump won in 2024, including Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Republicans defend two in states Harris won: New Hampshire and Vermont. The AP calls Texas, Florida, and Iowa competitive governor races. If Democrats win, they would hold a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. The outcome of these races will shape the political landscape for the next two years of the Trump administration.

As polls close at various times across the country, the nation awaits the results that will define the balance of power in Washington. The AP notes that House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker if Democrats take the House, and has outlined a 100-day agenda on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while complicating Vice President JD Vance's path. The final tally will reveal how successfully each party managed to overcome the historical midterm headwind.