Polls Show 12 to 15 Seats Will Decide Israel's Next Government

Palestinian citizens of Israel are positioned to determine the outcome of the Knesset election scheduled for next week. Current polling indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat legislature. Simultaneously, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. This stalecast leaves the 12 to 15 seats won by Palestinian parties as the deciding factor in who holds power.

These seats are split between two main groupings: the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al. Ahmad Tibi, who heads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over 20 years, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a critical tool to bring down the current government. The community constitutes approximately 20% of Israel's total population, making their collective vote a substantial portion of the national total.

The prospect of a coalition between the opposition and Palestinian parties faces significant political resistance. Most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has initially ruled out such an alliance, while Netanyahu’s allies have used campaign posters with slogans like "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi" to make the idea politically toxic. Historically, only two Palestinians have held ministerial posts in Israel: Raleb Majadele, who served as sports minister for two years, and Issawi Frej, who handled regional coordination for just over a year.

Precedent suggests that current refusals may soften once results are in. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition negotiations with Abbas. Mohammed, a prospective voter who manages a mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to prioritize mathematical necessity over political preference. He noted that "at the end of the day, everything is mathematics," urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

For Palestinian leaders, the choice is often between competing negatives. None of the opposition parties advocate for a two-state solution, and most oppose a Palestinian state while supporting the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described his decision as a choice between the far-right bloc led by Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, versus the opposition. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the central motive for voters, citing the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising racism within Israel.

Distrust of the electoral system has historically depressed turnout. Last month, Israel's supreme court removed Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article regarding the 7 October attacks, a ruling criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some voters, like Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle to avoid legitimizing a system they view as unequal.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He characterized the vote as an effort at mitigation, where voters can distinguish between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election date is notable for falling two days before the 1956 massacre in Kfar Qasim, where border police killed 49 civilians who had broken an unknown curfew. Iraqi observed that while there is no clarity about the future, the vote reflects a deep sense of powerlessness among many Palestinian citizens.