Netanyahu's Likud Slips to 20.8% as Arab-Led Bloc Holds 19 Seats in Knesset Projections

With 85% of the vote counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party held 20.8% of the share Wednesday, while centrist challenger Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party trailed at 16.1%. No bloc had reached the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Local media projected 53 seats for Likud and allied parties, 48 for Yashar and allied parties, and 19 for Arab-led parties.

Turnout reached nearly 78% of eligible voters, the highest level since 1999. That figure excludes about a half-million absentee ballots from military personnel and diplomats, which remain to be counted. Final results are expected by the end of the week.

Netanyahu's share fell from 23.4% in the 2022 election. His far-right partner, national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, also lost support. Eisenkot, a former military chief, has said he would consider partnering with Arab-led parties under conditions that include recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and designating Hamas an extremist group. Arab-led parties hold 14.9% of the counted votes and have ruled out working with Netanyahu; he has called the prospect of such a government dangerous. Netanyahu dismissed the idea of partnering with Arab parties as treasonous after the vote.

Arab-led parties' constituents make up 20% of Israel's population. Israel's Arab citizens descend from Palestinians who stayed after the state's creation in 1948. Voting reflected concern over military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population and unease over Netanyahu's alliance with the far-right.

President Isaac Herzog is expected to tap Likud, the largest party, though he is not required to choose its leader. Herzog said Wednesday, "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections." Yair Golan, whose Democrats party supports bringing Arab-led parties into a coalition, said, "We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes." United Arab List party leader Mansour Abbas said, "We are here, we are not on the sidelines."

If no coalition reaches 61 seats, new elections could be held early next year. Israel held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 during a similar deadlock. Minority governments are possible but require cooperation from parties outside the government to pass legislation.