Texas leads 10 million vote surge in 2026 midterms

More than 43 million Americans cast ballots early or returned mail-in votes by Wednesday, marking a jump of nearly 10 million votes over the same period in 2022. The Associated Press analysis of data from 47 states and Washington, D.C., shows this participation level occurring five days before the general election.

Texas accounts for a large portion of that growth. Over 6.3 million Texans voted in advance as of Wednesday, which is 50% higher than the 4.2 million who did so four years ago. Harris County, which includes Houston, recorded 862,700 early votes compared with 564,500 in 2022. That county voted for Democratic candidates in 2024, with Kamala Harris defeating Donald Trump by nearly six percentage points and Colin Allred beating Ted Cruz by about 11 percentage points.

The surge in Texas is occurring while voters choose successors for the Senate and governor. Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico for the Senate seat. Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Trump visited Texas earlier this week, his third trip to the state in one month, as Republicans aim to defend a territory where Democrats have not won a statewide election in more than three decades.

Other states with competitive Senate races are also seeing sharp increases in early turnout. South Carolina, which is selecting a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, reported an 83% rise in early voting compared to the same point in 2022. Kansas saw early ballots increase by 34%, adding roughly 83,000 votes to the 2022 total. Michigan recorded about 409,000 more early votes than four years ago, a 32% increase, while Maine saw a 44% jump.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is challenging Democrat Adam Hamilton. Michigan is holding its first midterm election with statewide early in-person voting, a provision approved by voters in November 2022. National data from states that track party affiliation shows about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have voted early so far.

The election will determine control of Congress two years into President Donald Trump's second term. Republicans currently hold the House and the Senate. The AP data indicates that Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority in a contest where Democrats are attempting to win seats in states that have traditionally favored Republicans.