Oil Prices: Third Carrier Stays Put Until After Midterms

The United States is moving a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East as military planning for a potential conflict with Iran accelerates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently traveled to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling a shift in the region's security posture. Officials indicate that Washington and Jerusalem are coordinating strategies for a possible attack on Iranian targets after the U.S. midterm elections conclude on November 3.

According to a person briefed on the war planning, the goal is to avoid a spike in oil prices before voters cast their ballots. President Donald Trump is expected to weigh options for military action in the days following the election. The deployment of the additional naval assets places the U.S. military in a position to project greater power across the region while Iranian forces prepare for a response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that his country is ready for both diplomacy and war. Tehran is demanding formal control of the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the area. Despite the increased American military presence, Iran shows no sign of making major concessions in the ongoing negotiations.

In the United States, early voting has surged. Nearly 21 million Americans have already cast ballots by mail or in person, according to data from the University of Florida's Election Lab. The total rose by approximately 2 million in a single day. Early voting in key battleground states is running at higher levels than in the previous midterm cycle, with Democrats voting early at higher rates than Republicans.

While Democrats are more likely to vote before Election Day, Republicans tend to turn out on the day itself. This pattern makes early figures difficult to use as a precise forecast for the final outcome. Meanwhile, a federal judge in California is restricting pre-election field operations by the Department of Homeland Security. The agency says the efforts aim to identify noncitizens who allegedly voted illegally in nine states.

In separate legal news, a federal magistrate judge ruled that President Trump must sit for a deposition in his $10 billion defamation case against the BBC. The judge ordered Trump to comply with court rules or face sanctions. The suit centers on a Panorama broadcast from late October 2024 that allegedly edited his January 6 speech to make it seem he incited a violent siege of Congress. Trump has described the broadcast as false and defamatory under Florida law.

The BBC, which apologized for the splicing, is seeking to understand Trump's state of mind during the speech. The network argues that he may have intended to encourage violence. BBC attorneys note that more than 200 defendants in related cases have said the speech motivated them. The network is also seeking details on how Trump has profited since returning to the White House to gauge the extent of any financial damage.

Economic concerns also weigh on voters as grocery costs remain a topic of debate. Ground beef reached $6.79 per pound last month, an 85% increase over the past decade, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Eggs fell to $2.27 per dozen after hitting a record high of $6.23 in March 2025. Butter averaged $3.96 in September, down 17.3% from a year earlier due to oversupply, while coffee remains 44% higher than it was two years ago despite the removal of tariffs.