7,000 deaths mark current U.S.-Iran war toll as analysts predict a third phase after Nov. 3 votes

The human cost of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached a grim milestone, with more than 7,000 people dead in Iran and over 4,000 killed in Lebanon, according to Western non-governmental organizations and regional media reports. These figures include 21 U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis, with additional casualties recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. As the U.S. midterm elections approach on Nov. 3, analysts predict a new phase of the war will begin once the ballots are counted.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst who previously served as an intelligence official in the Israeli military, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He now works with the Institute for National Security Studies and warned that the next round of fighting could be more destructive than the first two. Citrinowicz expects the conflict to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and subsea internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested Iran might use its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to inflict economic damage on the United States.

The current pause in major strikes follows two distinct wars fought under President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the past 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire was reached. Fighting resumed in February after a large U.S. military buildup, starting with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran has continued to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

These maritime attacks have pushed up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms on Truth Social, claiming the country was "making up fake hits, mines and everything else." A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. Those demands include relief from sanctions, reparations for damage from earlier strikes, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to retain enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has likely pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She predicted that retaliation would come from proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims, stating that Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. He added, "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed."

The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear whether Trump will approve it. Netanyahu has spoken openly of "finishing the job" and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government with opposition members. He warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack.