70,000 Returning Israelis Could Decide Close Knesset Race

An estimated 70,000 Israelis living abroad have arrived or are scheduled to arrive in Israel before Tuesday’s Knesset elections. These voters could determine the outcome if the race between competing political blocs remains tight. The figure is an estimate, as no precise headcount is available.

In the 2022 election, roughly 36,000 votes were required to secure a single Knesset seat. With population growth and higher expected turnout, analysts now project the threshold for a seat at 38,000 to 39,000 votes. If 60% of the returning diaspora votes for the change bloc, that group would gain between one and one-and-a-half seats. No reliable data exists on the specific political preferences of this returning population.

The return of these voters has directly impacted the hospitality sector. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23% increase in occupancy during election week compared to October of last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain’s marketing director, stated that Israelis are combining their civic duty with short vacations. The company has introduced promotional packages to capture this demand.

Fattal Hotels also observed rising bookings, particularly in central Israel. Maya Shalev, vice president of marketing and sales, noted that the chain is offering discounts of up to 30%, plus an extra 10% for loyalty members between October 25 and 29. She indicated that bookings originating from abroad for these specific dates suggest a link to the election.

At the October Council rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday, several diaspora residents shared their reasons for returning. Judy, who has lived in the United States for over 50 years, traveled from Miami to vote and is returning in early November. She noted that while many in Miami and Los Angeles vote for the Right, she does not. Nurit attended the event with her son-in-law and 18-year-old grandson from Canada, who is voting for the first time.

Ofer, who arrived from New York, plans to return to the U.S. the day after the election. Gidi, who came from Australia, will fly out of Ben-Gurion Airport on Wednesday due to work commitments. His wife will remain in Israel for two more weeks. Zehava, also from New York, stated she voted for Likud and planned her visit in advance to see family.

Some Israelis were unable to return due to flydubai flight cancellations following an attempted terrorist attack. One young man explained that the cancellations caused flight prices to the Far East to rise. Racheli from Ramat Gan, who is in Vietnam with her husband, said she booked their trip nearly a year ago. She described missing her first vote as heartbreaking but decided to proceed with the vacation.