Serbia's New Government Delays Foreign Policy Changes for Domestic Repairs

Serbia’s new government will not immediately change its foreign policy, according to regional experts. The Student List won Sunday’s election, ending a 14 year rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. International observers had expected a quick pivot toward the West. Instead, analysts predict a slow process focused on internal consolidation.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that regional issues will not be the first priority. The new leaders must address a system that has captured democratic institutions. This includes fixing problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov said tidying up at home takes precedence over solving problems with neighbors.

Relations with neighboring countries remain strained. Serbia’s ties with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Kosovo have been frayed by Vucic’s nationalistic rhetoric. Popov noted that relations with Croatia are not frozen but are marked by sharp words. Vucic recently accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution during mass protests in Serbia.

Popov described the previous system as functioning on the production of internal and external enemies. He said Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia, giving Belgrade an argument to retaliate. Behind this public hostility, there was a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Belgrade backed Milorad Dodik, while Zagreb favored a third entity. Popov believes the new government can repair these damaged ties to help Serbia join the European Union.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new administration. Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Vuksanovic said Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as the devil they knew. Russian influence will face a blow as Vucic controlled media and intelligence cooperation downgrades. However, the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia. The country still needs preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. Parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. Vuksanovic stated that the new government will not see value in joining EU sanctions. Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. There is a question mark over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said ties with Israel will not be severed but will face scrutiny. The new government will re examine newly concluded contracts. These include Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. Serbia’s future stance will depend on political developments in Jerusalem.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia’s policy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re evaluated. He said it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.