Musk counters NASA panel on Moon fuel

Elon Musk rejected a NASA safety advisory panel's estimate of 22 Starship launches needed to fuel a lunar lander, stating the actual number will be between six and eight. The dispute arose after the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, identified the fueling process as a major risk for the Artemis IV mission, which is scheduled to land astronauts on the Moon in 2028.

Precourt told the panel that the team needs to monitor the numerous required fuelings closely. He cited a previous estimate of around 22 flights. Ars Technica reporter Eric Berger shared Precourt's remarks on X, prompting an immediate response from Musk. Musk wrote, "That's way too high. Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

The disagreement stems from the physics of using a vehicle as large as Starship for lunar missions. The rocket consumes nearly all its propellant reaching Earth orbit, so it requires an orbital refueling station to proceed to the Moon. SpaceX's plan involves launching a Starship configured as a storage tank, or depot. Tanker Starships then fly one at a time, dock with the depot, and transfer their remaining propellant. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander launches, docks, refills, and departs.

Each tanker flight represents a complete rocket launch, making the total count a critical factor for cost, timeline, and safety. Eric Berger estimated that even if SpaceX achieves two Starship launches per week by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel's 22-flight figure would still take approximately three months. The required number of tankers depends on how much propellant each vehicle delivers to orbit and how much is lost through boil-off during storage and transfer.

NASA's estimate appears to be based on Starship's current lift capability, while Musk's lower range assumes a more capable version of the vehicle. Musk has previously contested higher launch counts. In 2021, he called a government suggestion of 16 launches "extremely unlikely" and stated that eight tankers would be the maximum needed.

The final number hinges on hardware SpaceX has not yet fully flown. The company plans to conduct refueling operations with its upgraded V3 Starship. Precourt noted that Artemis IV involves "a large number of firsts." He also commended NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's team for working to remove obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin. Blue Origin's Blue Moon lander does not depend on orbital refueling for its initial mission.

The panel's quarterly meeting concluded with a focus on these technical risks. The company continues to develop the V3 Starship, which will determine whether the tanker count aligns with Musk's prediction or the panel's conservative estimate.