Majority of Lebanese Shi'ites want state to hold Hezbollah weapons, poll shows

The results of a September survey suggest a shift in how a large portion of Lebanon's Shi'ite community views the distribution of military power. The data, released in mid-October, indicates that a clear majority supports transferring control of Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state rather than keeping them with the militant group.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll among 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. It found that 66.4 percent supported handing the group's weapons over to the state, while 29.6 percent wanted Hezbollah to retain its arsenal. The findings were reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

The survey also measured trust in national institutions. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents said they trusted the Lebanese Armed Forces. Furthermore, 51.1 percent identified the army as the institution best positioned to guarantee long-term security, compared to just 16.5 percent who chose Hezbollah. Regarding war and peace decisions, 71.1 percent believed they should rest solely with the state, while only 5.9 percent said Hezbollah's leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Sentiment toward Hezbollah's performance during the recent conflict was mixed. About 67.4 percent of respondents said the group had either failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1 percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite this, 59.5 percent still reported some trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent citing a great deal of trust.

The new results stand in contrast to earlier data. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. In that earlier poll, only 7.9 percent supported giving up the group's weapons. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni noted that the gap may be influenced by differences in wording or agenda.

Hezbollah has taken steps to address economic needs following the destruction caused by the war that began in March 2026. The group announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those in other areas. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could become a target in an Israeli strike.