BYU faces gauntlet to save playoff hopes
A five-spot drop in the AP poll and a complex tiebreaker scenario force the Cougars to win all three remaining games.
By Aiko Petrov ·
BYU fell five spots to No. 12 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll released Sunday. The drop follows an eight-point loss to No. 2 Utah and a similar defeat to UCF, both of which ended with opposing fans storming the field. These two results have left the 7-2 Cougars without control over their College Football Playoff destiny in their fourth season in the Big 12.
The committee has historically been hesitant to select two-loss teams from outside the SEC or Big Ten since 2014. A critical signal will arrive Tuesday when the next playoff rankings are released. The committee must decide how severely to penalize BYU for falling 28-20 at Rice-Eccles Stadium after leading at halftime. The immediate hurdle is Saturday’s 1:30 p.m. game against Baylor at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Baylor has not lost since replacing coach Dave Aranda with interim coach Joe Klanderman. The Bears are 4-2 overall and 6-3 in conference play. A loss to the red-hot Bears would likely end BYU’s chances. The Cougars then travel to Kansas, who are 1-5 and 3-6, before hosting Cincinnati, who are 2-4 and 5-4.
Neither opponent offers an easy path. Kansas nearly defeated UCF at home on Saturday. Cincinnati beat Texas Tech and lost 31-24 to BYU last week. Another setback would likely send the team to a mid-level bowl game for the third straight year, such as the Pop-Tarts Bowl or Alamo Bowl.
The most direct route to a playoff berth is through the Big 12 championship. Utah holds the automatic berth spot, while Texas Tech sits second in the league at 5-1. BYU, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are all tied at 4-2. Texas Tech must lose at least one of its final three games for the lower-tier teams to have a mathematical chance. The Red Raiders play at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, and at home against TCU.
Houston, which is 7-2 and 4-2, is the primary threat in tiebreakers. BYU does not play Houston this season. The Cougars need Houston to lose at least one more game because the red-wearing team wins most head-to-head tiebreaker scenarios against two-loss contenders. BYU’s best mathematical scenario involves Texas Tech and Utah both having two conference losses, while BYU holds a 2-0 record against their three common opponents: Arizona, Cincinnati, and TCU.
An at-large bid remains possible but requires specific outcomes. Notre Dame must stay unbeaten while other teams ahead of BYU drop multiple games. The Irish, who beat BYU 24-20 on Oct. 17, have since defeated Navy 35-13 and No. 1 Miami 31-24. They still play Boston College, SMU, and Syracuse. Matt Ensor, the Big 12’s Senior Director of Communications, said it is too early to announce specific tiebreaker scenarios. The league will release possibilities only when contending teams can clinch a spot in upcoming games.
