Moscow Airports Face Record Closures as Drone Threats Mount

Major airports in the Moscow region suspended operations almost every day in October due to Ukrainian drone activity. The disruptions represent the most intense phase of a campaign that has forced Russian aviation authorities to halt flights for months. Some airports remained closed for up to nine hours on single days, according to data from the independent outlet Agentstvo.

The affected sites include Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo. These closures stem from a safety procedure managed by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, the measure closes airspace over a region when an aircraft violates borders, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear. This triggers strict limits on all air traffic in the area.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined this strategy in early September. He stated that Ukraine intended to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Addressing airlines, insurers, and travelers, he warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine's own airspace has remained closed since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, explained that every drone poses a military threat under current protocols. He compared the situation to the Houthi group in Yemen, which disrupted Saudi airspace, but noted that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis. Military analyst Jan Matvejev agreed that Ukraine could severely disrupt traffic without fully closing the airspace. He noted that simple drones without warheads are sufficient to trigger the protocol, and that Ukraine's industry produces hundreds of long-range drones daily.

Matvejev argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these threats. He stated that if it were possible to shoot them down easily, Russia would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if they were available. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, cited well-informed sources to say Ukraine's efforts are just getting started.

Experts warned of risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, which killed 38 people after being hit by a Russian air-defense missile. Matvejev said little has changed in the air-defense protocol since that event. He noted that while machine guns pose low risk to aircraft, missiles could drift toward nearby airliners due to mass production defects.

Matvejev added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm because collisions can be serious. He estimated that drones flown from Ukraine to Moscow weigh dozens of kilograms. Other airports have also been affected, including Pskov in the summer of 2023 and Sochi earlier this month. Russia has also struck Ukrainian airports, including Kyiv's and Boryspil, according to Zelenskyy in September.

Laneckij said foreign airlines will decide whether to continue flying to Russia based on military threats, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, premiums could rise sharply, causing ticket prices to soar. Competition in the Russian aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on remaining foreign carriers. He concluded that whether these airlines stay depends on the price they must pay for the danger faced.