Kremlin confident Trump will press Ukraine talks

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov expressed confidence that President Donald Trump will continue pursuing peace efforts regarding Ukraine despite the recent U.S. midterm election results. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Peskov stated that groundwork for a settlement is already in place. He noted that a round of trilateral negotiations involving Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. representatives is set to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Peskov described the election outcome as an internal U.S. matter. He added that the administration hopes the "successful humanitarian peace-building efforts" of First Lady Melania Trump will continue. Last week, a limited ceasefire around the Russia-occupied city of Oleshky was brokered with her assistance. The truce allowed for the delivery of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of some residents. Trump met with Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a White House ceremony on Thursday to recognize the truce.

The Kremlin's posture follows recent actions by the Trump administration that appeared to favor Moscow. Last month, the U.S. struck a diesel fuel import deal with Russia. This move reversed years of U.S. pressure on the Kremlin and disappointed Ukraine and its European allies. Trump also issued an executive order to pause sweeping new sanctions on the Russian economy. Lawmakers from both parties criticized the move as benefiting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Tensions also arose over the throttling of Starshield, the military-grade version of the Starlink satellite internet service. Ukraine reported that the system, which serves as the backbone of its drone operations, was briefly slowed. Trump denied being behind the move, but observers viewed it as part of Washington's efforts to pressure Kyiv. The diesel deal appeared to falter this week after U.S. federal and state officials warned of legal consequences for handling shipments. Two U.S.-bound tankers changed course, though the Kremlin said deliveries will continue.

Ukraine remains focused on replenishing its stockpiles of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly requested faster delivery of the defensive systems to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks. U.S. stockpiles were exhausted by the Iran war, and Washington prioritized replenishing its own arsenals. On Oct. 30, the Trump administration approved a proposed $2.1 billion sale of Patriot interceptors for Ukraine after Kyiv accused the Pentagon of delays.

Russian officials predict that the new Congress will influence Trump's approach. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy head of the Security Council, stated that Trump would be less inclined to press Ukraine with a new Congress seated. "He doesn't need an extra confrontation with Democrats," Medvedev said. Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter, argued that Putin missed a chance to strike a deal before the election. He wrote that Putin's prospects have significantly worsened because the window of opportunity is starting to close.

Zelenskyy told German broadcaster ZDF on Wednesday that Democrats speak clearly about supporting Ukraine. He noted that the midterm elections could have a positive effect on U.S. assistance, including speedier delivery of Patriot interceptors. "I believe our chances of getting additional assistance from the United States may now grow," he said. Strong bipartisan support for Ukraine raises the prospect of veto-proof passage of more aid or tough new sanctions.

Experts caution against expecting a dramatic shift in policy. Jorn Fleck, a senior director at the Atlantic Council, said Democrats will struggle to impose meaningful limits on Trump's foreign policy conduct. He noted that Trump may shift into deal-making overdrive to cement his legacy. Konstantin Kosachev, a deputy speaker of the Russian parliament, argued that Trump's executive powers allow him to pursue his course regardless of congressional opposition. "They will not find a more pliable or constrained Trump," Kosachev said.

Kosachev added that Kyiv and its European allies have sided with Trump's domestic political adversaries by pinning their hopes on the Democratic victory. He predicted they will face two years of a hard-line Trump. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna agreed that the president has the ability to dictate foreign and security policy. He said unpredictability should be expected as the administration moves forward.