Victorian Labor Plunges to 18% in Poll as Coalition Extends Lead

Labor's primary support in Victoria has dropped to a record low of 18 percent, according to a new poll released on Monday, November 9. The figure represents a seven percentage point decline for the government party. The survey places the Coalition firmly in first position with 33 percent support, while One Nation has surged to 21 percent. The Greens also gained ground, rising three points from September to reach 17 percent.

The DemosAU/PremierNational poll was published first by the Herald Sun. It marks the latest data point in a volatile period for the Victorian government ahead of the state election scheduled for November 28. The two-party-preferred result shows the Coalition leading Labor by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent. This widens the advantage the Coalition held in September, which stood at 52 percent to 48 percent.

George Hasanakos, the research head at DemosAU, stated that results at this level could force Liberal or National candidates to face One Nation in numerous seats. He noted that a clear Coalition majority could emerge from such a scenario. Hasanakos explained that One Nation would need exceptionally strong support to win those specific contests. This is because Labor and Greens preferences are expected to flow to the Liberals. The poll surveyed 1,562 respondents and has an effective sample of 818, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent. Hasanakos said the firm stood by the findings after repeated checks.

Premier Ben Carroll addressed the numbers while speaking in South Melbourne on Monday morning. He repeatedly declined to say whether the poll worried him. Carroll said his priority remained fighting for working people and ensuring voters understood his government would support them. He claimed a Liberal-One Nation government would shrink the economy, trigger a recession, and make life harder for Victorians.

Inside the Labor campaign headquarters, officials are treating the result as an outlier. They point to other public polling that places the party’s primary support in the 20s. However, several MPs speaking to Guardian Australia without authorisation said caucus members are questioning the campaign’s direction. One MP described colleagues as angry and deflated, blaming Carroll for the mood. Another criticized the heavy emphasis on crime, arguing the government had already had years to address community concerns.

Crime has featured prominently in Carroll’s recent announcements, traditionally an area of Coalition strength. On Sunday, he proposed a $204 million rehabilitation detention program. Judges could use this program when sentencing low and mid-level youth offenders. On Monday, Carroll announced $70 million to recruit another 200 police reservists. The funds will also be used to reopen, build, and upgrade police stations.

Opposition leader Jess Wilson said on Monday that her party’s crime agenda included Aidan’s Law. This proposed legislation would strengthen sentencing for attacks on people intervening to protect others. Carroll immediately matched that commitment. The proposed law is named after Aidan Becker, 22, who was fatally stabbed at Mernda station. Becker was intervening to protect a 14-year-old during an alleged violent robbery.

The Victorian Electoral Commission will conduct indicative two-candidate-preferred counts on election night. These counts will involve candidates the commission expects to lead after preferences are counted. The selections draw on polling, previous election results, and analysis of preference flows. The commission will keep those selections unpublished until election day to avoid affecting voters’ behaviour.

In a separate development, Pauline Hanson rejected Sunday reports that former national campaign director Sean Black was secretly continuing to work for One Nation in Victoria. Black was jailed for rape in 2018 and lost an appeal against his conviction. One Nation rehired him in 2020 after he served his sentence, before Hanson dismissed him under political pressure earlier this year. Hanson told the Australian Financial Review on Monday that his work ended when she sacked him.