Victorian Labor MPs question campaign strategy as poll shows party trailing One Nation

Labor’s position in the Victorian state election has deteriorated sharply, with a new poll placing the party in third place behind both the Coalition and One Nation. The DemosAU/PremierNational survey, first released by the Herald Sun on Monday, indicates a substantial shift in voter preference that has unsettled the governing party.

Labor’s primary vote has dropped seven points to 18%, an all-time low for the party. In the same polling period, the Coalition secured 33% of the primary vote, while One Nation rose to 21%. The Greens also improved their standing, increasing their primary vote by three points to 17% since September. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition now leads Labor by a margin of 56 to 44, up from 52 to 48 in September.

The timeline of this shift suggests a rapid decline in support for the incumbent government. In September, Labor held a narrower lead over the Coalition, but the current data shows the opposition party gaining ground while Labor loses it. George Hasanakos, head of research at DemosAU, stated that if this result were replicated on election night, many contests would be decided between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation. He argued that this scenario would likely produce a clear Coalition majority, as Labor and Greens preferences would flow to the Liberals.

Hasanakos confirmed he verified the results multiple times, describing the outcome as extraordinary. The poll included 1,562 respondents with an effective sample size of 818 and a margin of error of 3.4%. He noted that the team used a larger sample than usual and stood by the findings.

Premier Ben Carroll addressed the results at a press conference in South Melbourne on Monday. He declined to state explicitly whether he was worried, instead focusing on the government’s work to support working people. Carroll told reporters that voters should know their government is on their side. He contrasted this with the alternative, describing a potential Liberal-One Nation government as one that would fight against Victorians, shrink the economy, and cause a recession.

Inside the Labor caucus, the reaction has been more critical. Several MPs, who were not authorized to speak publicly, told The Guardian that many members are questioning the party’s strategy. They are treating the 18% figure as an outlier, pointing to other public polls that show Labor’s primary vote in the 20s. However, one MP described the caucus as angry and deflated, blaming the Premier for the current state of the campaign. Another MP called the recent strategic focus on crime a diabolically stupid strategy, noting that the government had years to address community concerns about rising crime rates.

The party has recently intensified its focus on law and order. On Sunday, Carroll announced a 204 million dollar plan to allow judges to sentence low and mid-level youth offenders to a new rehabilitation detention program. On Monday, he announced a 70 million dollar package to recruit 200 more police reservists and upgrade police stations. Opposition leader Jess Wilson said her party is getting tough on crime, including by introducing Aidan’s Law to toughen sentencing for attacks on people who step in to protect others. Carroll immediately matched this commitment, naming the proposed law after 22-year-old Aidan Becker, who was fatally stabbed at Mernda station after intervening in an alleged robbery.

Separately, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson rejected reports that her former national campaign director, Sean Black, continues to work for the party in Victoria. Black was jailed for rape in 2018 and was rehired as a campaign director in 2020 after serving his time. Hanson fired him earlier this year following political pressure. She told the Australian Financial Review on Monday that the day she sacked him was the day he finished up.